Accurate prediction of house price, a vital aspect of the residential real estate sector, is of substantial interest for a wide range of stakeholders. However, predicting house prices is a complex task due to the significant variability influenced by factors such as house features, location, neighborhood, and many others. Despite numerous attempts utilizing a wide array of algorithms, including recent deep learning techniques, to predict house prices accurately, existing approaches have fallen short of considering a wide range of factors such as textual and visual features. This paper addresses this gap by comprehensively incorporating attributes, such as features, textual descriptions, geo-spatial neighborhood, and house images, typically showcased in real estate listings in a house price prediction system. Specifically, we propose a multi-modal deep learning approach that leverages different types of data to learn more accurate representation of the house. In particular, we learn a joint embedding of raw house attributes, geo-spatial neighborhood, and most importantly from textual description and images representing the house; and finally use a downstream regression model to predict the house price from this jointly learned embedding vector. Our experimental results with a real-world dataset show that the text embedding of the house advertisement description and image embedding of the house pictures in addition to raw attributes and geo-spatial embedding, can significantly improve the house price prediction accuracy. The relevant source code and dataset are publicly accessible at the following URL: https://github.com/4P0N/mhpp

Housing has emerged as a crucial concern among young individuals residing in major cities, including Shanghai. Given the unprecedented surge in property prices in this metropolis, young people have increasingly resorted to the rental market to address their housing needs. This study utilizes five traditional machine learning methods: multiple linear regression (MLR), ridge regression (RR), lasso regression (LR), decision tree (DT), and random forest (RF), along with a Large Language Model (LLM) approach using ChatGPT, for predicting the rental prices of lane houses in Shanghai. It applies these methods to examine a public data sample of about 2,609 lane house rental transactions in 2021 in Shanghai, and then compares the results of these methods. In terms of predictive power, RF has achieved the best performance among the traditional methods. However, the LLM approach, particularly in the 10-shot scenario, shows promising results that surpass traditional methods in terms of R-Squared value. The three performance metrics: mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and R-Squared, are used to evaluate the models. Our conclusion is that while traditional machine learning models offer robust techniques for rental price prediction, the integration of LLM such as ChatGPT holds significant potential for enhancing predictive accuracy.

This paper introduces GeoShapley, a game theory approach to measuring spatial effects in machine learning models. GeoShapley extends the Nobel Prize-winning Shapley value framework in game theory by conceptualizing location as a player in a model prediction game, which enables the quantification of the importance of location and the synergies between location and other features in a model. GeoShapley is a model-agnostic approach and can be applied to statistical or black-box machine learning models in various structures. The interpretation of GeoShapley is directly linked with spatially varying coefficient models for explaining spatial effects and additive models for explaining non-spatial effects. Using simulated data, GeoShapley values are validated against known data-generating processes and are used for cross-comparison of seven statistical and machine learning models. An empirical example of house price modeling is used to illustrate GeoShapley's utility and interpretation with real world data. The method is available as an open-source Python package named geoshapley.

Despite advancements in real estate appraisal methods, this study primarily focuses on two pivotal challenges. Firstly, we explore the often-underestimated impact of Points of Interest (POI) on property values, emphasizing the necessity for a comprehensive, data-driven approach to feature selection. Secondly, we integrate road-network-based Areal Embedding to enhance spatial understanding for real estate appraisal. We first propose a revised method for POI feature extraction, and discuss the impact of each POI for house price appraisal. Then we present the Areal embedding-enabled Masked Multihead Attention-based Spatial Interpolation for House Price Prediction (AMMASI) model, an improvement upon the existing ASI model, which leverages masked multi-head attention on geographic neighbor houses and similar-featured houses. Our model outperforms current baselines and also offers promising avenues for future optimization in real estate appraisal methodologies.

Shapley values have become one of the go-to methods to explain complex models to end-users. They provide a model agnostic post-hoc explanation with foundations in game theory: what is the worth of a player (in machine learning, a feature value) in the objective function (the output of the complex machine learning model). One downside is that they always require outputs of the model when some features are missing. These are usually computed by taking the expectation over the missing features. This however introduces a non-trivial choice: do we condition on the unknown features or not? In this paper we examine this question and claim that they represent two different explanations which are valid for different end-users: one that explains the model and one that explains the model combined with the feature dependencies in the data. We propose a new algorithmic approach to combine both explanations, removing the burden of choice and enhancing the explanatory power of Shapley values, and show that it achieves intuitive results on simple problems. We apply our method to two real-world datasets and discuss the explanations. Finally, we demonstrate how our method is either equivalent or superior to state-to-of-art Shapley value implementations while simultaneously allowing for increased insight into the model-data structure.

Typical machine learning regression applications aim to report the mean or the median of the predictive probability distribution, via training with a squared or an absolute error scoring function. The importance of issuing predictions of more functionals of the predictive probability distribution (quantiles and expectiles) has been recognized as a means to quantify the uncertainty of the prediction. In deep learning (DL) applications, that is possible through quantile and expectile regression neural networks (QRNN and ERNN respectively). Here we introduce deep Huber quantile regression networks (DHQRN) that nest QRNNs and ERNNs as edge cases. DHQRN can predict Huber quantiles, which are more general functionals in the sense that they nest quantiles and expectiles as limiting cases. The main idea is to train a deep learning algorithm with the Huber quantile regression function, which is consistent for the Huber quantile functional. As a proof of concept, DHQRN are applied to predict house prices in Australia. In this context, predictive performances of three DL architectures are discussed along with evidential interpretation of results from an economic case study.

Geographically weighted regression (GWR) is a popular tool for modeling spatial heterogeneity in a regression model. However, the current weighting function used in GWR only considers the geographical distance, while the attribute similarity is totally ignored. In this study, we proposed a covariate weighting function that combines the geographical distance and attribute distance. The covariate-distance weighted regression (CWR) is the extension of GWR including geographical distance and attribute distance. House prices are affected by numerous factors, such as house age, floor area, and land use. Prediction model is used to help understand the characteristics of regional house prices. The CWR was used to understand the relationship between the house price and controlling factors. The CWR can consider the geological and attribute distances, and produce accurate estimates of house price that preserve the weight matrix for geological and attribute distance functions. Results show that the house attributes/conditions and the characteristics of the house, such as floor area and house age, might affect the house price. After factor selection, in which only house age and floor area of a building are considered, the RMSE of the CWR model can be improved by 2.9%-26.3% for skyscrapers when compared to the GWR. CWR can effectively reduce estimation errors from traditional spatial regression models and provide novel and feasible models for spatial estimation.

These concepts form the foundation of many machine learning algorithms. Initially, I decided against writing an article on these topics because they are so widely covered. However, I have changed my mind because understanding these concepts is essential for understanding more advanced topics like Neural Networks (that I plan on tackling in the near future). In addition, this series will be divided into two parts to make it more manageable and organized for better understanding. So make yourself comfortable, grab a cup of coffee, and get ready to embark on a magical journey of machine learning. As with any machine learning problem, we begin with a specific question we want to answer.

Machine learning is a branch of artificial intelligence that makes predictions or decisions by using algorithms to learn from data. It's crucial to have a solid understanding of both the datasets you will be dealing with and the models you can use to construct your models before you begin using machine learning. We will examine some of the most well-liked machine learning datasets and models in this article. In the next sections, we will discuss several datasets and the models that may be used in that exercises. This well-known dataset includes measurements of the sepal length and width, petal length and width, and 150 iris flowers -- 50 flowers from each of the three species.